|WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20, 2014
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 P.M.
STEAMY AUGUST WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A SIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS
Partly cloudy and hot today with a 40% chance of isolated thundershowers. High temperatures will be in the low-90s. We should have southerly winds at 10-15. It will be partly cloudy and mild tonight with a 20% chance of showers or thundershowers after midnight. Low temperatures will range from the low-80's in Galveston to near 80 on the mainland. Expect southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Thursday should bring partly cloudy skies and hot temperatures with a 20% chance of isolated thundershowers. Highs will be in the low-90's. Expect southerly winds at 10-15 mph. On Friday, we should see partly cloudy skies and hot temperatures. Highs will range from the low-90's in Galveston to the mid-90's on the mainland. Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.
SYNOPSIS AND OUTLOOK:Steamy August weather will continue as high pressure aloft entrenches over southeast Texas by the weekend. A surge of deeper moisture over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will bring an enhanced chance of thundershowers today, with rain chances decreasing as we move into the weekend.
At the surface, a stationary frontal boundary extends eastward from eastern Colorado to a low over the Great Lakes. A stationary front extends east from this low. southern Illinois. Further east, another frontal boundary extends south into North Carolina and then east to a low in the Atlantic. Elsewhere, high pressure persists over the southeast Gulf of Mexico, Texas, the Desert Southwest and the Rockies.
At the upper-levels, high pressure ridge continues over the southern and central Plains. An upper-level low is situated over southern California, while to the east, a weak high pressure ridge persists over New England.
Typical August weather will continue as southeast Texas remains influenced by an upper-level high over the state. Ample low level moisture will give us an increased chance of rain today, with the high pressure ridge building eastward over the region as we move into the weekend. This should guarantee a continuation of hot, mostly sunny weather into early next week.
This morning we are seeing the most credible threat for tropical cyclone development since Hurricane Bertha at the beginning of this month. The treat comes in the form of a 1009 MB (96L) interacting with a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. It is believed that such interaction will make development more likely as the system moves west to west-northwestward into the Caribbean Sea, despite a somewhat unfavorable environment. Currently, the National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing through the coming 48-hours and a 50% chance of developing over the coming 5-days. Long-term models view this system as a possible threat to the U.S. sometime next week. In addition, a second tropical wave to the east in the west-central Atlantic is being given a 10% chance of developing over the coming 48-hours and a 10% chance of developing over the coming 5 days.
As yesterday, we again have three tropical waves are tracking west across the Tropical Atlantic Basin, the two mentioned above and one just now exiting the West African coast