|SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2014
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND MILD TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TOMORROW
SUNNY AND COOLER ON MONDAY
Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and mild today with a 30% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms early, increasing to an 80% chance this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the low-70's. We should have southeast winds at 15-20 mph. It will be mostly cloudy and cool this evening with n 80% chance of showers or thunderstorms, decreasing to a 30% chance after midnight. Low temperatures will be in the mid-60's. Expect southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Sunday should bring partly to mostly sunny skies, breezy conditions and warm temperatures. Highs will range from the mid-70's in Galveston to near 80 on the mainland. Expect southwest winds at winds at 15-20 mph. On Monday, we should see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures. Highs will be in the mid-60's. Winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.
SYNOPSIS AND OUTLOOK:Increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and an upper-level disturbance moving east towards Texas will give us a good chance at showers and thunderstorms through this evening. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds. Drier air and sunshine will return by Sunday.
At the surface, high pressure is ridging into the South from Virginia, while a stationary frontal boundary stretches from near Memphis, Tennessee to the South Plains of Texas. Elsewhere, high pressure continues over the Four Corners region while further west, a cold front is moving inland over Oregon and Washington.
At the upper-levels, we find a more zonal west to east flow with a a weak high pressure ridge over the western Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley region. To the west, an upper-level low and trough is centered over Arizona and New Mexico.
The upper-level low and trough to our west will move eastward across Texas over the coming 24-hours. This should set off showers and thunderstorms over Southeast Texas with severe storms and some heavy rain possible. Drier air will move in on Sunday as the trough heads east. Cooler air will move into Texas Sunday night and Monday, bringing seasonably cooler weather and mostly sunny skies to our area for Thanksgiving week.
The Tropical Atlantic Basin continues to be quiet overall with no active tropical cyclones and tropical development not expected over the coming 48-hours.