|MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2014
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER THROUGH TOMORROW WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
Partly cloudy and warm today with a 20% chance of showers or thunderstorms, increasing to a 30% chance later today. High temperatures will be in the upper-80's. We should have easterly winds at 10-15 mph. It will be partly to mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures tonight with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Low temperatures will be in the upper-70's. Expect southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Tuesday should bring mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures with a 50% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper-80's. Expect southeast winds at 5-10 mph. On Wednesday, we should see mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures with a 50% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper-80's. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.
SYNOPSIS AND OUTLOOK:We should see increasing clouds and rain chances as we move towards the middle of the week. A tropical wave moving west in the Gulf, a stationary front offshore and high level moisture moving in from the Pacific should lead to a good chance of rain by Tuesday and Wednesday.
A stationary cold front extends from near Brownsville northeast to Louisiana and Georgia to the Atlantic. A tropical wave is headed west in the Gulf just to the southeast of the stalled frontal boundary. High pressure is in control from the Ohio Valley to New England. To our north, another cold front is moving south over the central Rockies, the Plains and the Great Lakes, while a large dome of high pressure is building in across the northern Plains.
At the upper-levels, we see a high pressures ridge building along the West Coast and a broad high pressure ridge extending from Texas to South Carolina. A broad low pressure trough is moving across the northern part of the U.S. To the southwest, we see Hurricane Odile moving over Baja California.
Partly cloudy skies today should give way to increasing clouds, warmer temperatures and a good chance of rain as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday as the system in the Gulf tracks west, bringing deeper low level moisture back to our area.
With the exception of Hurricane Edouard, the Tropical Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet this morning.
The big story continues to be Category 2 Hurricane Edouard. At 5 am AST, Edouard was centered near 26.9 N and 54.5 W. The system was moving northwest at 15-mph, with a turn to the north and northeast expected. This should keep it well east of the U.S. At the present time, sustained winds are up to 105-mph with a central pressure at 966 MB (28.53").
Closer to the United States, the broad, poorly organized tropical wave (92-L) continues moving west in the Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche. It will encounter a stationary front off the Texas coast and seems to have almost no chance of developing. Nevertheless, we will keep an eye on it as it moves west across the Gulf of Mexico.
Finally, storm activity has diminished greatly with the tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic.