|TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2014
PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HEADS FOR NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST--SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF TEXAS.
Partly cloudy and warmer today with a 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near 90. We should have southeast winds at 10-15 mph. It will be partly cloudy and mild tonight with a 20% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Low temperatures will be near 80. Expect southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Wednesday should bring partly cloudy skies and and a 30% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the low-90's. Expect southeast winds at 10-15 mph. On Thursday, we should see partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of isolated thundershowers. Highs will be in the low-90's. Winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph.
SYNOPSIS AND OUTLOOK:We should partly cloudy skies, hot temperatures and a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms as Tropical Storm Dolly heads for Mexico. Dolly should help push somewhat deeper moisture into our area over the coming 24-hours, but impacts here will be minimal and limited mostly to decent swells washing ashore on Galveston beaches.
At the surface, high pressure extends from Arkansas to Georgia and North Carolina. To the south, Tropical Storm Dolly is in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. To our north, a mostly stationary cold front extends from northern New Mexico across the Texas Panhandle to the eastern Plains and Canada. A low pressure trough stretches from a low near El Paso to southeast New Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure is in control from the central Plains to the northwest Rockies.
At the upper-levels, a broad, weak low pressure trough is moving into the northeastern Great Plains. Weak high pressure persists off the East Coast and weak high pressure persists over the West as a mostly zonal west to east flow continues over the U.S.
Expect fairly typical early September weather with seasonably hot temperatures, scattered showers or thunderstorms and a good southeast breeze. Tropical Storm Dolly will remain well to our south, though it may produce decent waves along our beaches. Looking further ahead, a large upper-level high will build over the Southeastern U.S. and Texas later this week, resulting in more sun and hotter conditions as we move towards the end of the week.
Our primary concern this morning is Tropical Storm Dolly. The good news with this system is that it should stay south of the Texas Coast. The bad news is that there will be a threat of heavy rains and damaging flash floods over northeast Mexico as the system moves inland over that region. At 7 am, EDT, Dolly was centered near 23.0 N and 95.7 W, or about 230 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico. Sustained winds were 50-mph and central barometric pressure was 1005 (29.68"). The storm was moving west-northwest at 13-mph with little change in direction or forward motion expected.
Elsewhere, the Tropical Atlantic Basin has quieted down somewhat, even though four additional tropical waves are moving west across the region. Storm activity remains fairly minimal with all of these. In the longer run, the National Hurricane Center does give a disturbance now over Africa, a 30% chance of developing later this week as it moves west into the Atlantic.